What scenarios could play out in the 2024 US election?

With voting under way in the 2024 US presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in one of the least predictable races in recent history, there are a number of scenarios that could play out.

A decisive win on election night

The most straightforward scenario would be for one candidate to decisively win on election night with clear wins in the Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.

Days of vote counting

The next scenario, possibly more likely, would be for the vote counting to go on for several days. Given the tight polls in the swing states, along with a high rate of early voting, the US could see another "red mirage" similar to 2020 in which Trump appears to win on election night, but then loses after all the votes are counted.

The Rust Belt: the most likely path to victory for both parties

In general, to secure a victory, Harris will need to win all three Rust Belt states, particularly the largest one, Pennsylvania. However, if she wins all other swing states (unlikely), she would not need Pennsylvania.

Could there be a landslide?

Given the uncertainty of the polling, it's possible that one candidate or the other could win in a landslide. The nature of the electoral college, wherein it's winner-take-all for the states (with a handful of exceptions, such as Nebraska), can make it appear that a candidate has won big, even if they only win each state by thin margins.

What if the election hinged on one state?

One scenario that could drag out the election would be if the results hinged on the votes of one state that was too close to call and required recounts. Such was the case in 2000, when the swing state of Florida was almost evenly split between the two candidates. The Supreme Court ultimately ruled in favour of Republican George W. Bush over Democrat Al Gore, a decision that remains controversial for many Democrats.

Could a third-party candidate decide the election?

Could third party candidates make a difference? Many are looking at Green Party candidate Jill Stein's popularity among Arabs and Muslims in Michigan as a sign that she could tip the election in favour of Trump. It's unlikely that her candidacy would swing Michigan, though if Harris loses the state, especially if it means losing the presidential race, fingers will likely be pointed at Stein.

What if the candidates tie?

Could the candidates tie? Yes, the two major candidates could tie because the electoral college has an even number of electoral votes at 538, meaning they could conceivably tie at 269 each.

A possible tie combination could be: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada for Republicans and Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona for Democrats. Another possible tie combination could be: Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan for Republicans and Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada for Democrats.

To settle the tie, the newly elected House of Representatives would vote, making the congressional races all the more important.