Brazil heading to a rare sequence of increasing coffee crop output

Brazil is expected to post its third annual rise in coffee production this year, a rare sequence seen only seven times in 144 years of coffee history in the world’s largest grower and exporter of the beans, according to data compiled by Reuters.

The positive sequence is likely to be extended for another year in 2025, experts say, mainly due to rising production of robusta beans in a country that has historically been a producer of the milder arabica coffee preferred by high-end cafes. Robusta coffee is widely used to make instant coffee.

Brazilian coffee production usually alternates years of high and low production, in the arabica- biennial cycle. Arabica coffee trees tend to produce less in a year following a good crop, or the other way around.

That cycle, experts say, was broken after extreme weather: a harsh drought and then freak frosts that hit Brazilian coffee fields around 2020 and 2021.

Since then, the country has been producing larger crops every year. The improvement is due to some post-frost farming techniques, such as pruning and expanded use of irrigation, particularly in robusta fields, to better cope with dry weather.

“The growth is a reality. ... No doubt next year’s crop will be larger as well, taking this sequence of increases to four years,” said Marcio Ferreira, chair of exporting group Cecafe.

The growing robusta output in Brazil is seen by analysts as a major contributor to more stable, rising overall coffee production. Robusta trees do not experience the biennial production variation of arabica.