Donald Trump takes key swing states in race for the White House

Results are coming in across the United States, and the early signs look good for Donald Trump. The Republican candidate has won the swing states of North Carolina and Georgia and currently leads the popular vote against Kamala Harris:

The Republicans have taken control of the Senate from the Democrats, having turned seats in Ohio and West Virginia. A third Democrat seat, in Montana, looks likely to fall to the Republicans:

Results in the House of Representatives also look to be going the Republicans' way. The party is so far up by one seat:

When will we know the final results from the presidential election? Changes in voting patterns means it could be a few days before the final results become clear, but as and when they do The Spectator’s data hub will provide them here in real time.

Usually the results have been clear by the early hours in the UK, but when the election is close and candidates are not ready to concede the verdict could drag on for days.

Previously elections have been called by the early hours of the morning. Last time, however, was different, partly in due to changes in voting: a record 101 million Americans – some 63 per cent – voted early in 2020 and in many counties the ballots of ‘late deciders’ were counted into the night.

Some 538 Electoral College votes are up for grabs this year, with 270 needed for the win. The seven swing states make up 93 of the potential votes. Currently none of the polling suggests that either Harris or Trump has a clear lead in each swing state.

The seven swing states have polling aggregates of two points or less yet maintain wide error margins. This means that if the polls are off by two or three points, as previous elections suggest that most are, then landslides are still possible for both candidates.

In the 2022 midterms, the Republicans took control of Congress. All 435 members of Congress face reelection this year and the Democrats require five wins to regain control and upset a possible Trump presidency.

Around a third of Senate seats are up for election this year. Of those being decided, 19 are currently held by the Democrats, 11 by the Republicans and four independents. Given that more Democrats are on the defensive, it gives the Republicans a chance to retake the Senate. Polling site FiveThirtyEight gives the Republicans an 87 per cent likelihood of taking the Senate. Key battlegrounds to follow are West Virginia, Ohio and Montana.

Data collated by John O’Neill, Michael Simmons, Sam McPhail and Simon Cook

For more analysis Kate Andrews talks to Freddy Gray on our election night Americano: