Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambada: How US caught drug kingpin after 35 years

Mike Vigil thinks a similar explosion of violence, which became known as the Culiacanazo, might be avoided this time around:

“The Sinaloa Cartel has a very strong bench of possible leaders who could take over including El Chapo’s brother,” he says.

In fact, Mr Vigil argues, the "Kingpin strategy" – that is focusing on bringing down individual cartel leaders – is rarely successful.

“Under the administration of (then-Mexican President Felipe) Calderon, it only tended to create internal conflict within the cartels which then led to a bloodbath.”

If that happens this time, suggests former DEA agent Mike Vigil, “the only winner would be their rivals, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)”.

That said, moments of flux and possible power vacuums such as this one are deeply unpredictable. The Mexican authorities have already sent additional forces to the state of Sinaloa ahead of any flare-up of violence.

The other obvious question over Zambada’s arrest is: why now?

The operation was planned for months. However, some reports say there was also an opportunistic element to it. When the various elements behind the ruse appeared to be coming together, despite some scepticism among the US authorities, they ultimately decided they had nothing lose by trying it.

The bigger reason behind the timing, though, was revealed by the words of the US Attorney General Merrick Garland in a video message confirming the arrests:

“Fentanyl is the deadliest threat our country has ever faced”, he said promising that the US justice department “will not rest until every single cartel leader, member and associate responsible for poisoning our communities is held accountable."

Fentanyl overdoses are now the leading cause of death for Americans between the ages of 18 and 45. It is a staggering statistic and one that has perhaps focussed minds in the Biden administration, especially in an election year.

Both Los Chapitos and El Mayo have made billions through fentanyl, which is easy to produce and transport without the need for large coca plantations in the Andes as with the manufacture of cocaine.

Experts say that shutting down the smuggling of fentanyl altogether is virtually impossible. It is simply too profitable to the cartels and too riven into the modern landscape of Mexico’s drug war.

However, US law enforcement wants to hurt the cartels that are producing it, diminish their influence and, wherever possible, dismantle their leadership.

The capture of El Mayo Zambada – even if aging, in poor health and captured in a double-cross – was always going to remain a key part of that strategy.