Grammys 2024 Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win?

The Grammy Awards are back on Sunday night, and isn’t that great? SZA leads the field with nine nominations. Victoria Monét and Boygenius aren’t far behind. For the past couple of years, each of the Big Four categories had 10 nominees. This year, when voting for Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, or Best New Artist, the Recording Academy’s members had to choose between only eight contenders apiece. In theory, that should mean less vote-splitting and solid, meaningful victories. In practice, we’ll just have to wait and see.

The Grammys will be there again—live from Los Angeles’ Crypto.com Arena—to delight, maybe disappoint, and, at the very least, add to the discourse at 8 p.m. Eastern on CBS and Paramount+ With Showtime. Here’s our breakdown of who will win and who should win in key categories we’re watching.

Grammy Nominations 2024: See the Full List Here

Album of the Year

• Boygenius - The Record
• Janelle Monáe - The Age of Pleasure
• Jon Batiste - World Music Radio
• Lana Del Rey - Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd
• Miley Cyrus - Endless Summer Vacation
• Olivia Rodrigo - Guts
• SZA - SOS
• Taylor Swift - Midnights

Should win: SZA - SOS

Will win: Olivia Rodrigo - Guts

Taylor Swift may look like the easy choice, as a Grammy Award for Album of the Year in 2024 would be her fourth win in this category—the most by any primary artist, ever, breaking Swift’s current tie with music legends Stevie Wonder, Frank Sinatra, and Paul Simon. Still, Olivia Rodrigo is also a Grammy darling, with three statuettes to her name, including Best New Artist in 2022. Importantly, Rodrigo’s beloved sophomore album, Guts, rocks out with an alt-pop energy and razor-sharp wit that could feel like the future to the academy voters.

Boygenius, Lana Del Rey, and Janelle Monáe would be welcome winners, but it’s SZA who deserves this trophy for SOS, her soul-baring, genre-hopping tour de force. Strangely, what might be holding her back is that the artist with the most Grammy nominations in a given year often leaves without best-album honors (just ask Kendrick Lamar and ​​Beyoncé). Between two rising stars with angry hit songs about exes, Rodrigo seems the more likely to land on the Grammy stage accepting this award. Bad idea, right? Nah, seriously, it’s fine. –Marc Hogan

Record of the Year

• Billie Eilish - “What Was I Made For?” [From the Motion Picture “Barbie”]
• Boygenius - “Not Strong Enough”
• Jon Batiste - “Worship”
• Miley Cyrus - “Flowers”
• Olivia Rodrigo - “Vampire”
• SZA - “Kill Bill”
• Taylor Swift - “Anti-Hero”
• Victoria Monét - “On My Mama”