Punxsutawney Phil’s winter weather forecast was announced shortly after sunrise on Friday – and the best-known Groundhog Day animal predicted an early spring this year.

Global heating amid the climate crisis? The groundhog himself doesn’t speak, obviously, so that’s for us humans to determine. But CNN quickly pointed out that the woodchuck’s record is unreliable and that Punxsutawney Phil has only been correct in his forecast 39% of the time since the abstruse ritual began in 1887.

A federal agency took a look at the animal’s record last year and put his accuracy rate at about 40%.

The buck-toothed mammal emerged from his nook in Gobbler’s Knob, Pennsylvania, to crowds at the scene of the largest and best-known Groundhog Day celebration in the United States.

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The annual event is a tongue-in-cheek ritual in which Phil’s handlers, members of a club with roots in the late 19th century, reveal whether the groundhog has seen his shadow – ushering in six more weeks of winter weather – or hasn’t, presaging early springlike weather.

About 10,000 people have made their way in recent years to Punxsutawney, where festivities begin in the dead of night and culminate in the midwinter forecast. A bundled-up crowd, some wearing groundhog-themed hats, watched musical performances and fireworks as they waited for sunrise and the appearance of Punxsutawney Phil.

The Pennsylvania governor, Josh Shapiro, took the stage on Friday morning to urge people around the world watching the festivities to come to Punxsutawney next year. Shapiro also announced Phil as the new official meteorologist for Pennsylvania.

“Punxsutawney is the center of the universe right now and I love that you’re all here,” Shapiro said.

Phil predicts more winter far more often than he sees an early spring, not a bad bet for February and March in western Pennsylvania.

The tradition of celebrating the midpoint between the shortest day of the year on the winter solstice and the spring equinox goes back many centuries in European farm life.

The 1993 film Groundhog Day, starring Bill Murray, fueled interest in Punxsutawney Phil and inspired informal observations far and wide.

The Associated Press contributed reporting

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