Focus on US Jobs Report Despite Various Markets Holidays

Notes/Observations

Focus on US job report despite equity markets being closed; data to show steady recovery from the pandemic.

Numerous market closures in Far East, Europe and North America kept participation at a minimum.

Asia

• South Korea Mar CPI data registered its fastest annualized pace since Jan 2020 (YoY: 1.5% v 1.5%e).
• Japan PM Suga said to delay his planned trip to US by one week until Apr 16th.

Americas

• Top White House aides to meet with industry and tech execs on Monday, April 12th to discuss semiconductor shortage.
• President Biden said to have no ambitions to revive State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT).

Energy

• OPEC+ delegate stated that majority of OPEC+ members supported a 1-month roll over of production cuts. Discussions were ongoing. Group said to consider a gradual increase of 350K bpd in May, 350K in June and then 400K bpd in July.
• Saudi Arabia was said to conside restoring 250K bpd of its voluntary cuts in May and bringing back another 250K bpd in July (out of its 1M bpd of additional voluntary cuts).

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

• Indices [Stoxx600 closed, DAX closed, CAC-40 closed, IBEX-35 closed, FTSE MIB closed, SMI closed, S&P 500 Futures +0.27%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes

Equities

• Energy: Gazprom [GAZP.RU] +1% (production).

Speakers

• France Fin Min Le Maire stated that the new national lockdown should impact the economy in 2021.
• Italy debt agency (Tesoro) said to consider reopening its Green BTP bond in Q4 (**Reminder: On Mar 3rd Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) opened its book to sell new Apr 2045 green BTP bond via syndicate for Italy’s 1st green bond issuance).
• Turkey Presidential advisor Bulut: Stated that it did not sell an FX during recent market turmoil.
• China Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Hua Chunying reiterated stance that US should not send the wrong signal to Taiwan.
• China PBoC to set additional capital requirements on systemically important banks (TBTF).

Currencies/ Fixed Income

• USD was slightly softer in dull trade as many trading centers in Far East, Europe and North America were closed for holiday.
• Green back had rallied in recent weeks aided by rising Treasury yields on inflation fears and complemented by economic optimism. Dollar also getting tailwinds as President Biden administration’s planned stimulus of over $2.0T coupled with a a rapid COVID-19 vaccine roll out.
• EUR/USD at 1.1780 ahead of the US jobs report and USD/JPY at 110.45.

Economic data

• (FR) France Feb YTD Budget Balance: -€47.5B v -€21.9B prior.
• (TH) Thailand End-Mar Foreign Reserves: $247.0B v $253.9B prior.
• (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 197.6K v 188.4K tons prior.
• (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 26th (RUB): 13.77T v 13.85T prior.
• (IT) Italy Q4 YTD Budget Deficit to GDP Ratio: 9.5% v 11.1% prior.

Fixed income Issuance

• None seen.

Looking ahead

• (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.
• 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Mar 26th: No est v $582.3B prior.
• 07:45 (US) Mar CBIZ Small Business Employment Index.
• 08:00 (UK) No Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index (UK holiday).
• 08:30 (US) Mar Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +660Ke v +379K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: +643Ke v +465K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +35Ke v +21K prior.
• 08:30 (US) Mar Unemployment Rate: 6.0%e v 6.2% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 11.1% prior; Labor Force Participation Rate: 61.5%e v 61.4% prior.
• 08:30 (US) Mar Average Hourly Earnings M/M: 0.1%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 4.5%e v 5.2% prior; Average Weekly Hours: 34.7e v 34.6 prior.