Is Moldova part of Nato? Why Ukraine’s neighbour isn’t a member and what Russia invasion means for

Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko may have accidentally revealed Russian plans to invade Moldova.

His troops are believed to have joined Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, having reportedly entered the Chernihiv region in the north of the country on Tuesday morning.

The UK has imposed sanctions on Belarus for its role in the war. President Lukashenko is a close ally of Vladimir Putin, and Russia has been able to use his country as a launchpad for attacks.

But their plans could go beyond Ukraine based on a map shown during a televised broadcast from President Lukashenko.

The map showed attack plans for Ukraine, but also displayed a possible route into Moldova from the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, via a large red arrow.

It also showed red shading around the Moldovan border, potentially indicating plans for an occupation.

What could happen if President Putin does indeed target Moldova yet? Here is what you need to know.

Moldova is not part of Nato, nor does it have any active plans to become a member.

The country is constitutionally neutral, but does have relations with Nato via the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.

Nato has also worked with Moldova to modernise its defence and security structures.

Moldova has already accepted thousands of Ukrainian refugees, and its President, Maia Sandu, has condemned Russia’s invasion.

She said last Friday: “Yesterday morning, we woke up in a new world, more violent, more uncertain, more unstable. It is a world where unprovoked warfare is taking its toll near our borders. It is undoubtedly a world we hoped we would never like to live in.”

What is Nato?

Nato stands for the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, and is also known as the North Atlantic Alliance.

Its stated purpose is to “guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political and military means”.

Nato was founded in April 1949 in Washington DC. Its headquarters are in Brussels in Belgium.

Politically, it aims to promote democratic values, and enables members to consult and co-operate on defence and security-related issues to solve problems, build trust and, in the long run, prevent conflict.

Regarding military action, Nato says it is “committed to the peaceful resolution of disputes”.

If diplomatic efforts fail, it has the military power to undertake crisis-management operations.

If Russia were to invade Moldova the situation is likely to be similar to that of Ukraine, in that Nato forces including the UK and US would support Moldova by sending both military and non-military aid, but would not engage in battle with Russian troops directly.

Nato uses a principle of collective defence under Article 5 of its treaty. It means an attack against one Nato member is considered an attack against all.

It is also a defensive organisation, meaning it will not launch an attack unless a Nato member is attacked directly.

President Putin invading Moldova would certainly be a significant escalation and could cause Nato members to further increase sanctions against Russia.

But if Russia were to attack, say Poland, Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania – all Nato members – it would be a different story, and it could trigger a larger war.

In Moldova, President Putin would likely be keen to take control of Transnistria, a Russian-backed breakaway region.

Russian troops are already based in the region, and it is not controlled by the Moldovan authorities in Chisinau.

If Russia were to take over Ukraine and install a puppet regime this could cause a significant threat to Moldova’s sovereignty.