UFC 301: Ismael Bonfim vs. Vinc Pichel Prediction, Pick and Odds

Six months after the UFC last attempted to put together this matchup, Ismael Bonfim and Vinc Pichel are scheduled to meet on the prelims of UFC 301 from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Returning ten months after his last fight, Bonfim (19-4, 1-1 in UFC) captivated fans with his debut knockout of Terrance McKinney at UFC 283 but fell flat six months later in a submission loss to Benoit Saint-Denis.

Now in his third UFC appearance, Bonfim is once again a heavy favorite, but missed weight the first time this fight was scheduled back in November 2023, forcing it to be delayed to UFC 301.

Pichel (14-3, 7-3 in UFC) may have a tall task ahead of him on May 4, but brings the experience edge, entering his 11th fight in the UFC.

However, Pichel will be fighting for the first time in over two years, last losing to Mark O. Madsen at UFC 273 in April 2022. Prior to that loss, Pichel was riding a three-fight win streak.

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Sometimes when the UFC wants to make a splash in a foreign country, they set up a few squash matches early on in the card and that is exactly what they are trying to do here.

Not only is Pichel coming off a two-year layoff at 41 years old but Bonfim has always performed better in Brazil and gets another chance to show out in front of his fans.

When Bonfim loses, all four times in his career he has been submitted. He is not a terrible grappler himself but tends to make mistakes when overwhelmed in grappling scenarios, leaving his neck exposed in the process. Pichel, however, has never won a fight by submission despite being a BJJ black belt.

Pichel excels when he can control the pace, land strikes from the outside, and timely takedowns. Pichel has never landed more than 71 strikes in a UFC fight but averages three takedowns per fight with 54 percent accuracy.

Bonfim, while much more explosive, is not the all-out fighter the UFC has been marketing him as. Sure, both of his UFC fights so far have not even reached the halfway point, but those fights were against two of the most chaos-inducing fighters in the promotion in Terrance McKinney and Benoit Saint-Denis.

Bonfim is a finisher, with 13 finishes on his record, but has picked up three of his last four wins by decision as his competition has increased.

Likewise, Pichel has only been knocked out once with a rare slam finish, and submitted once by former ranked contender Gregor Gillespie. Otherwise, he has not been officially knocked down through 10 UFC fights and has rarely been seen compromised.

The public will love Bonfim inside the distance and at first glance, I did as well. But Pichel's durability is largely underrated and the lasting image of Bonfim's last knockout in Brazil is hard to forget, especially with the UFC promoting it across their social media pages. Coming off a loss, expect a more measured Bonfim to show up and just look to get his hand raised.

Prediction and best bet: Ismael Bonfim by decision (+175)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.