Macron bets the house in election to break far-right momentum in ...

For weeks, the National Rally has been clamoring that it is “ready to govern” and wants a dissolution of the National Assembly if the presidential list loses the election. The National Rally’s lead candidate, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, has even offered to act as Macron’s prime minister if they win a majority in parliament.

Now, Macron has cut short his victory lap in the EU election by offering an opportunity to turn their desires into reality, making the high-risk calculus that a legislative election three weeks out might sap the far-right tide in France.

At no point in history has the National Rally appeared closer to power, with more MEPs and members of parliament than ever, and opinion polls showing support for the French far right rising in new categories of voters. All eyes are on whether Le Pen can reverse her role as perennial runner-up in French presidential elections, and win in 2027.

The idea of Le Pen in the Élysée is viewed with horror in Brussels, where France lurching to the far right is seen as posing existential challenges to the EU. While Le Pen has softened her image and toned down her inflammatory and euroskeptic rhetoric, her party is still on the fringes of politics on a range of issues. The National Rally repeatedly abstained on Ukraine aid, wants to ultimately leave NATO’s integrated command and opposes many landmark EU legislative measures in recent years.

On Sunday, she struck a populist, patriotic tone — and delivered a message against Brussels’ internationalism — saying she wanted to “put an end to this painful epoch of globalism.”

Rallying against the Rally

Macron’s gamble is a simple one, and is intended to bring Le Pen down to Earth with a bump. While the European election has delivered a decisive victory for the National Rally, legislative elections are unlikely to deliver such a clear win. The National Rally will land more seats in parliament but probably not win enough to be in a position to govern.