What Lewis Hamilton must do to stop Max Verstappen winning the F1 world title

Mercedes were expected to have the edge in Austin at the weekend but they ended up, in Lewis Hamilton's words, “going backwards” from Friday practice onwards. It took a sensational drive from Hamilton just to make it as close as he did on Sunday. Ultimately, though, he still ended up losing more ground to Max Verstappen in their gripping title race.

With the next two circuits expected to favour Red Bull, there is no doubt now that Verstappen has the momentum and that the pressure is massively on Hamilton if he wants that record eighth title. It may be the best chance he will ever get, remember, with no one quite sure what next season will look like. 

Here we look at what Hamilton must do to pull this out of the bag:

It goes without saying that Hamilton cannot do this on his own. It will take a huge team effort if he is to get out of this and he must get everyone - on both sides of the Mercedes garage - pulling for him. Whatever it takes; pizzas for the boys, Churchillian speeches on the shop floor in Brackley, burning the midnight oil himself if required. Hamilton must set the tone. Any update, any extra bit of lap time, could make the difference.

Hamilton found himself behind the eight ball on Sunday after being pipped to pole by Verstappen; completely exposed on the grid, the filling in a Red Bull sandwich with teammate Valtteri Bottas back in ninth. But a brilliant start nearly saw the seven-time world champion get out of jail, forcing Red Bull into an “aggressive” undercut strategy which almost allowed Hamilton in at the end. For as long as Mercedes remain fractionally slower than the Red Bull, Hamilton must remain razor sharp to extract the maximum possible. 

While he is generally clean and fair on track, it is not unheard of for Hamilton to resort to a few mind games or spoiling tactics, as he showed with teammates Fernando Alonso in 2007 and Nico Rosberg in 2016. Jenson Button suggested Hamilton may even have been trying a bit of that in qualifying on Saturday when he moved up alongside Verstappen on track, eliciting Verstappen’s “stupid idiot” jibe. It will be interesting to see whether Hamilton adopts a more aggressive attitude in the remaining races, or tries to get under the Dutchman’s skin in any way.

While he wants to push Verstappen hard, Hamilton cannot afford DNFs or mistakes himself. The 36 year-old must heed the famous maxim that ‘to finish first, first you have to finish’. As long as he keeps finishing at least second to Verstappen he cannot lose too much ground to the Dutchman. That means no contact on the track.

Bottas’ contributions to the Mercedes cause in Austin were limited due to the Finn taking his sixth engine of the season in Texas. But he can still play a vital role in this title race. Bottas performed a valuable role for Hamilton in Istanbul where he won the race, limiting the Briton’s losses after the seven-time world champion took a grid penalty of his own. And Mercedes badly need Bottas to roll up his sleeves now and get stuck in in his final few races for the team. Out-qualifying the Red Bulls if he can, spoiling their races, acting as a rear gunner for his teammate.

There is still plenty of time. It may feel as if Red Bull have all the momentum now, coming off an excellent weekend and with a couple of circuits coming up where they are expected to dominate. But Mercedes were expected to dominate in Austin and look what happened there. The reality is 12 points is nothing - one mistake, one DNF and that lead is wiped out. There are still 125 points up for grabs. And while Mexico and Brazil might suit the Red Bull car, anything can still happen, as Hamilton acknowledged on Sunday. “We have no idea [what will happen],” he said. “Mexico and Brazil are two circuits that are strong for Red Bull so we just try to minimise how strong they can be compared to us and see if we can do a better job.” 

Even if Red Bull do fly at altitude, the final three circuits should offer up opportunities. Qatar and Saudi Arabia are unknowns but the latter in particular looks as if it should be good for Mercedes with its long drags, while we know how much Hamilton loves Abu Dhabi. The 36 year-old has won four of the last seven races there and while Verstappen was victorious in Yas Island 12 months ago, Hamilton was recovering from Covid at the time and definitely not at his best. 

“I’m not thinking about it at the moment,” concluded Hamilton on Sunday. “I’ve got to be happy with the job that I did today and live in the moment. Unfortunately we weren’t quick enough to win the race but, yeah, we just look forward and take it one race at a time.”