Asteroid 2024 YR4 has non-zero chance of colliding with earth in ...

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The Providence Journal

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Asteroid 2024 YR4 has nonzero chance of colliding with earth in

The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to a NASA update on Feb. 7. This probability of impact has"...

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Earth's mini moon: Asteroid 2024 PT5 in orbit

An asteroid, named 2024 PT5, will do a 56-day horseshoe shaped fly-by near Earth before it continues on its journey.

Astronomers have spotted an asteroid with a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
The asteroid is estimated to be about 40-90 meters wide, big enough to cause local devastation but not mass extinction.
While the asteroid is dangerous enough to merit attention from scientists, it's most likely that the asteroid's chance of hitting Earth will go down.

Astronomers have spotted an asteroid with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth in the next decade.

The asteroid, dubbed 2024 YR4, has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, according to a NASA update on Feb. 7.

This probability of impact has increased since Jan. 29 when NASA observed that the asteroid had a little over 1% chance of impacting Earth.

Don’t panic yet - NASA said that it’s still “unlikely” that the asteroid impacts Earth.

But if it does, it’s large enough to cause “localized damage.”

Is there an asteroid heading towards Earth?

Yes, but it’s yet unclear whether it will actually hit Earth or not.

NASA first spotted the asteroid in late 2024. It was reported on Dec. 27, 2024, having surpassed the 1% impact probability threshold to formally notify other relevant U.S. government agencies of the object.

The asteroid currently has a 2.3% chance of colliding with Earth and rates a 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The scale ranges from 0 (no chance of impact) to 10 (a collision is certain and would cause worldwide devastation).

However, its impact probability is likely to change as scientists learn more about the asteroid. The last asteroid to reach that high of a rating on the Torino Scale was one called Apophis, which was rated a 4 in 2004 but subsequently downgraded to zero once scientists determined it would not hit Earth.

“It is possible that 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on the NASA JPL asteroid risk list,” said NASA in a press release. “It is also possible its impact probability will continue to rise.”

Should we be worried about the asteroid?

It’s rare to find an asteroid with a non-zero chance of hitting Earth: out of more than 37,000 near-Earth asteroids that have been discovered, 2024 YR4 is the only one with more than a 1 in 1,000 chance of impact.

However, a rating of 3 on the Torino Scale means that while the asteroid merits attention by astronomers, it’s most likely that further observations will find that the likelihood of collision is zero.

“There have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data come in,” NASA wrote in a blog post about the asteroid.

Its impact probability going up shouldn’t be reason for concern either.

“Often, counterintuitively, the odds of impact go up before they drop to zero,” said Planetary Society Chief Scientist Bruce Betts in a press release. "As more observations come in, the uncertainty in the area the asteroid will pass through decreases. But while that area still includes Earth, less uncertainty means the probability of impact increases.”

In the unlikely event that scientists find the asteroid will collide with Earth, NASA and the world's space agencies have taken steps to build a defense to protect humanity from threats posed by asteroids and other inbound space rocks, including developing ways to divert an asteroid from its path.