Tory plan for more NHS dentist appointments 'likely not reliable' Andrea Leadsom admits

The Tories’ much-derided NHS Dentistry Recovery Plan unravelled as a senior minister was grilled by MPs.

Stumbling primary care minister Andrea Leadsom was forced to admit its key pledge to deliver 2.5million more NHS dentist appointments “has a high likelihood of not being reliable”. She made the admission during an appearance before the Health Select Committee about the collapse in access to NHS dentists.

Its key pledge was that it would result in 2.5 million extra appointments - or 1.5 million courses of treatment when this would involve more than one appointment - despite coming with no extra funding.

Committee member Paul Blomfield, the Labour MP for Sheffield Central, asked the minister to “explain how the Government arrived at that figure”. Ms Leadsom replied: “That was NHS modelling that took into account the views of dentists and the usage of contracts and various other factors that came up with an assessment.”

She then added: “It's a complicated set of factors but at the same time it has quite a high likelihood of not being reliable, as is the case with all the modelling. As a previous finance person myself, I can absolutely assure you that it's not rocket science. It's more forecasting. It is a very tricky issue.”

Mr Blomfield replied: “That's quite an admission minister, because the 2.5 million [appointments] was the headline that accompanied the Recovery Plan. And what you're now saying is it's not really reliable.”

Ms Leadsom said: “I'm merely making the point that, as we all as politicians know, is that forecasting, is not an exact science. I am merely being cautious in saying that it could be more, it could be less, as is the case with all forecasting.” Mr Blomfield concluded: “Well it’s very helpful to be cautious with us, but I think it would have been very helpful to be cautious with the public when you announced the Recovery Plan.”

The Mirror is campaigning for a return of the right to an NHS dentist for all as most are no longer accepting new patients. Our online petition on the 38 Degrees platform, launched in partnership with the British Dental Association, came in response to an exodus of dentists from the NHS and has now reached 210,000 signatures. You can sign the petition here.

The Health Select Committee had previously labelled the NHS dental payment contract “not fit for purpose” but the Tories’ Recovery Plan kicked any reform of it into the long grass - after the next General Election. In earlier evidence Shawn Charlwood, chair of the British Dental Association’s general dental practice committee, told MPs: “It feels to me that this plan was not designed to rescue NHS dentistry.

“It was designed with the upcoming election in mind to try and limit the political damage the access crisis is doing to political prospects in constituencies. The measures in the plan make for a good press release, a nice photo opportunity or something for candidates to talk about on the doorstep. But this 'recovery' plan, to be honest, is not worthy of the title.”

It emerged that the £200 million funding for the recovery plan will be reallocated from the “underspends” - created when dentists have to return NHS cash - from within the existing £3 billion budget. This total budget for England has already seen a £1 billion real terms cut over the last decade due to inflation and has remained flat despite population growth. The BDA estimates the budget is only enough to fund care for half the population. It is increasingly made up of the contribution from patient charges which have gone up by 45% in the last decade.

What is in the Dental Recovery Plan?

A New Patient Premium will see dentists receive a bonus of between £15 and £50 for treating someone who has not had a check up for two years. The minimum amount paid to dentists for NHS treatments will also rise from £23 to £28. However only 900 of the 8,000 practices in England are not currently getting a £28 minimum so a minority of practices will benefit from the uplift.

The plan states “around 240 NHS dentists” will also be paid a £20,000 'golden hello' to work in under-served areas for three years. The BDA says these will merely move around existing NHS dentists and not tackle the problem of a national shortage of them.

If an NHS dentist treats more patients than outlined in their NHS contract agreement then they receive no payment for it - effectively capping the numbers able to access a dentist. Health minister Andrea Leadsom said the plan will allow some dentists to be paid for 10% more treatments than agreed in their NHS contract - if they have the staff to carry them out. The NHS contract means if they treat fewer patients than expected due to lack of staff they can end up returning tens of thousands of pounds. This is currently leading to practices no longer being viable so they are going private.

The Government had claimed the plan will result in 2.5 million more appointments being delivered but has so far refused to publish the modelling behind this. Dr Amanda Doyle, NHS England Director for Primary Care, confirmed to MPs that the 2.5 million figure was based on how many appointments current “underspends” would theoretically pay for. This is hundreds of thousands of pounds currently being clawed back from understaffed NHS dental surgeries and then syphoned off to other parts of the NHS.