NFP Preview: US Dollar Bounce Potential if Jobs Remain Strong

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss our recent policy announcement and the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report. In April, we maintained our policy interest rate at 5% and published a revised outlook for the Canadian economy. We had three key messages. First, monetary policy is working. Total consumer price index (CPI) and core inflation have eased further in recent months, and we expect inflation to continue to move closer to the 2% target this year. Second, growth in the economy looks to be picking up. We expect GDP growth to be solid this year and to strengthen further in 2025. Third, as we consider how much longer to hold the policy rate at the current level, we’re looking for evidence that the recent further easing in underlying inflation will be sustained. Before taking your questions, let me take a moment to discuss recent economic data and the outlook for growth and inflation. In Canada, growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. The labour market also cooled from very overheated levels. With employment growing more slowly than the working-age population, the unemployment rate has risen gradually over the last year to 6.1% in March. There are also some signs that wage pressures are beginning post: BOC'S GOV. MACKLEM: IF WE CUT INTEREST RATES AND THAT WEAKENS THE C$, THAT IS SOMETHING YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WITH HOW MUCH YOU NEED TO REDUCE INTEREST RATES.