Rishi Sunak's last card against a predicted electoral defeat: immigration

Since the beginning of the year, one question has been agitating the British political microcosm: When will the next general election be held? All theories are doing the rounds. Some still believe it will be in June, after the local elections on Thursday, May 2, which are likely to be devastating for the Conservatives. Others suggest mid-July, just after Rishi Sunak, the Conservative prime minister, returns rom the NATO summit in Washington.

A September ballot would allow the Tories to avoid the expense of their lavish annual conference in early October. But holding the general election in mid- to late-October, after this major event, would enable the Conservatives to close ranks in the run-up to the poll. Betting on a late election, after the US presidential election in early November, would give time to digest the implications of a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Apart from the fact that it is of little interest to the British public, this debate is rather pointless. No one can be sure of the date chosen, assuming Sunak has already decided the matter, which is by no means certain. It is up to the prime minister to decide when the first-round general election will be held, under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act, a law passed in 2022. They can be held at any time, provided they are called no later than December 17, 2024 – exactly five years after Parliament first convened following the December 2019 general election. The various political parties then have 25 days in which to campaign.

Keeping Labour under constant pressure

Downing Street, meanwhile, is doing nothing to curb speculation. "My working assumption is we will have a general election in the second half of this year," Sunak repeated on January 4, without ruling out a spring or summer ballot. His intentional vagueness has one advantage: It keeps Labour, the main opposition party, under constant pressure, having already been forced to campaign for months in fear of early elections. But since the definitive adoption of the Safety of Rwanda Act on April 23, the possibility of autumn elections has become more likely.

The highly controversial law, which declares Rwanda a safe country for asylum-seekers, is intended to enable the implementation of the agreement signed with Kigali in April 2022, on the outsourcing of asylum-seekers to Rwanda. The law limits possible appeals against deportations. The first planes carrying asylum seekers to Rwanda could take off in mid-July, "in 10 to 12 weeks," suggested Sunak. Downing Street hopes that the deterrent effect on Channel crossings could be felt as early as summer or early autumn. The Irish government is already concerned about a recent influx of migrants arriving in the UK via Northern Ireland, fleeing the risk of deportation.

You have 46.83% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.