D-Street week ahead: Ukraine-Russia conflict, FII flows, F&O expiry likely to impact market

20 Feb 2022

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DStreet week ahead UkraineRussia conflict FII flows FampO expiry likely to impact market

Key factors to watch on Dalal Street: With the Q3 earnings season now behind, global cues are likely to remain in focus on Dalal Street amid concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Remarks from Fed officials, crude oil prices, FII outflows and COVID up

With the corporate earnings season now behind, global cues are likely to remain in focus on Dalal Street amid concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Remarks from Fed officials, due to speak this week, and crude oil prices will be tracked closely. FII outflows and COVID updates will also remain on investors' radar.

Analysts expect high volatility to continue ahead of the expiry of monthly derivatives contracts.

Last week, both Sensex and Nifty50 finished a volatile week with cuts of around half a percent, dragged by financial and metal stocks. (Read more on the week gone by)

Technical outlook

The 50-scrip benchmark index's short-term trend appears to be turning bearish gradually, though solid support at 16,800 is still holding quite strongly, according to Yesha Shah, Head of Equity Research at Samco Securities.

"The Nifty Bank is yet to confirm any bearish structure. The market is stuck in an uncertain zone between 16,800 and 17,600 (Nifty50). Any breakout on either side will certainly spark a new course of action," she said.

Shah suggests traders to retain a relatively bullish outlook and begin longs only around support with a strict stop loss below 16,800.

Religare Broking's Mishra expects a decisive close above 17,500 in the Nifty to help the bulls regain strength, and a sideways to negative bias to continue otherwise. He sees crucial support around 16,800-17,000.

Here are the key factors and events that are likely to influence Dalal Street in the week starting February 21:

"In the absence of any major event (domestically), focus would remain on the Russia-Ukraine situation and its impact on global markets... The recent pause in the index indicates caution and it will only ease with stability in global markets," said Ajit Mishra, VP-Research at Religare Broking.

GLOBAL CUES

Date US Europe Asia Feb 21 Feb official speech UK, France, Germany manufacturing and services PMI Japan manufacturing and services PMI Feb 22 Manufacturing data, manufacturing and services PMI BoE official speech Feb 23 BoE official speech Feb 24 GDP estimate, home sales, crude stockpiles Feb 25 Fed official speech Germany and France GDP data

Foreign fund flows will remain in focus. Last week, foreign institutional investors net sold Indian equities worth Rs 5,261.5 crore ($696.9 million), according to provisional exchange data. So far this month, they have taken out Rs 15,342 crore ($2 billion) from Indian shares -- a fifth straight month of outflows.

Corporate action

Company Ex date Purpose Record date Balkrishna Industries Feb 21 Special dividend Rs 12 Feb 22 Balkrishna Industries Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs. 4 Feb 22 Carborundum Universal Feb 21 Interim dividend Re 1.5 Feb 22 CIL Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs 5 Feb 22 Cochin Shipyard Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs 7 Feb 22 Cummins Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs 8 Feb 22 Hercules Hoists Feb 21 Interim dividend Re 0.75 Feb 22 Hero MotoCorp Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs. 60 Feb 22 India Nippon Electricals Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs. 6.25 Feb 22 IRCON International Feb 21 Interim dividend Re 0.70 Feb 22 JBM Auto Feb 21 Stock split from Rs 5 to Rs 2 Feb 22 Kirloskar Oil Engines Feb 21 Interim dividend Re. 1.5 Feb 22 Metropolis Healthcare Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs. 8 Feb 22 MTAR Technologies Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs. 3 Feb 22 Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Feb 21 Interim dividend Re. 1.75 Feb 22 Somany Home Innovation Feb 21 Interim dividend Re 0.5 Feb 22 SJVN Feb 21 Interim dividend Re. 1.15 Feb 22 Sundram Fasteners Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs 6.45 Feb 22 Tide Water Oil Feb 21 Interim dividend Rs 20 Feb 22 Akzo Nobel India Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs 40 Feb 23 Gautam Gems Feb 22 EGM - Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs. 4.95 Feb 23 Hinduja Global Solutions Feb 22 Bonus issue 1:1 Feb 23 Hinduja Global Solutions Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs. 28 Feb 23 Mayur Uniquoters Feb 22 Buyback Feb 23 MSTC Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs. 6.5 Feb 23 NCL Industries Feb 22 Interim dividend Re. 1.5 Feb 23 Neelamalai Agro Industries Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs. 10 Feb 23 NHPC Feb 22 Interim dividend Re. 1.31 Feb 23 Oil India Feb 22 Interim dividend Rs. 5.75 Feb 23 SBC Exports Feb 22 Bonus issue 1:1 Feb 23 SBC Exports Feb 22 Stock split from Rs 10 to Re 1 Feb 23 Suprajit Engineering Feb 22 Interim dividend Re 0.9 Feb 23 TCS Feb 22 Buyback Feb 23 Trent Feb 22 Interim dividend Re. 0.6 Feb 23 Ashiana Housing Feb 23 Interim dividend Re. 0.4 Feb 24 Bharat Dynamics Feb 23 Interim dividend Rs. 7.3 Feb 24 DCM Shriram Industries Feb 23 Interim dividend Re. 1. Feb 24 Hikal Feb 23 Interim dividend Re. 1.2 Feb 24 JB Chemicals & Pharma Feb 23 Interim dividend Rs. 8.5 Feb 24 Modison Metals Feb 23 Interim Dividend Re. 1. Feb 24 Parenteral Drugs Feb 23 EGM - Starlineps Enterprises Feb 23 Interim dividend Re. 0.01 Feb 24 Mrs Bectors Food Specialities Feb 24 Interim dividend Re. 1.25 Feb 25 HKG Feb 24 Bonus issue 1:2 Feb 26 Manappuram Finance Feb 24 Interim dividend Re. 0.75 Feb 25 MOIL Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs 3 Feb 26 Natco Pharma Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs. 2 Feb 25 Nureca Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs. 3 Feb 25 Panchsheel Organics Feb 24 Interim dividend Re 0.5 Feb 25 PlatinumOne Business Services Feb 24 Interim dividend Re 1 Feb 25 Polyplex Corp Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs. 35 Feb 25 Rama Steel Tubes Feb 24 Interim dividend Re 0.5 Feb 25 Sandesh Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs. 5. Feb 25 Taparia Tools Feb 24 Interim dividend Rs. 50 Feb 25 Andhra Petrochemicals Feb 25 Interim dividend Rs. 1.5 Feb 28 Ashutosh Paper Mills Feb 25 EGM - Gorani Industries Feb 25 EGM - Indo Asian Finance Feb 25 EGM - Jolly Plastic Industries Feb 25 EGM - Meera Industries Feb 25 Interim dividend Rs. 0.5000 Feb 28 PFC Feb 25 Interim dividend Rs. 6. Feb 28 SVAM Software Feb 25 EGM -