Covid Christmas 2021 vs Covid Christmas 2020 – are things better this year?

North Staffordshire residents will today celebrate the second Christmas of the pandemic – but how do things compare to last year?

While the rising Omicron wave and rocketing infection rates may be dampening the festive spirit, our analysis shows that the coronavirus situation on Christmas Day 2021 is markedly better than that seen 12 months ago.

This is mainly due to the success of the vaccination programme over the last year, which has significantly reduced the threat posed by Covid-19.

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The virus is clearly still a major public health threat which should be taken seriously, but most families in North Staffordshire will be able to enjoy a much more 'normal' Christmas this year.

Infection rates

In terms of case numbers and infection rates, the Covid situation is very different now compared to 12 months ago.

On Christmas Day 2020, an average of 82.3 people a day in Stoke-on-Trent were testing positive for coronavirus, the lowest rate the city has seen since October – although it should be noted that infections increased rapidly in the days after Christmas.

This Christmas, the city is seeing an average of 229.6 cases a day, which is just short of the pandemic high of 231 seen in July.

While thousands more people are being tested in the city each week now compared to last year, and more cases are being picked up via lateral flow tests, which were not being used extensively a year ago, Stoke-on-Trent's positivity rate is also higher now.

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Vaccination

But case numbers do not tell the whole story.

The last 12 months have seen humanity take its most significant step towards defeating coronavirus, with the largest, fastest roll-out of a vaccine in history.

People who are fully vaccinated are less likely to catch Covid-19, less likely to pass it on, less likely to end up in hospital and far less likely to die of coronavirus.

Vaccination is therefore a major factor in determining the risk posed by Covid-19 to public health and the NHS.

The UK's vaccination programme started in mid-December 2020, so by Christmas Day, less than three per cent of over-12-year-olds in the city had received their first dose, compared to 80 per cent now.

While the Omicron variant is better able to overcome the vaccine, meaning booster jabs are required, the current outlook is still far better compared to 12 months ago – thanks to the vaccination programme.

Hospitalisations and deaths

This can be seen by comparing hospitalisation rates. On Christmas Day, 2020, there were 265 patients with coronavirus at the University Hospitals of North Midlands, compared to 65 now. The 2020 total includes 24 patients in mechanical ventilation beds, compared to 14 now.

There were also a lot more people dying of coronavirus 12 months ago. In the week leading up to Chritsmas 2020, there were 33 Covid-related deaths in Stoke-on-Trent. The most recent figures from the Office for National Statistics show that in the week ending December 10, 2021, there were just two deaths in Stoke-on-Trent involving coronavirus.

Restrictions

Over the Christmas period in 2020, both Stoke-on-Trent and Staffordshire were subject to Tier 3 restrictions, under which indoor social gatherings were barred.

On Christmas Day itself, families were allowed to mix with up to two other households in a private home, a place of worship or an outdoor public space.

Tier 3 restrictions also meant that pubs and restaurants could only open for takeaways and click-and-collect, while indoor entertainment venues such as cinemas and theatres remained closed.

This year, there are no such restrictions barring social contact in place, beyond the self-isolation rules for people who have tested positive for Covid-19.

But the rules requiring people to wear masks on public transport, in shops and other indoor settings, which were introduced in response to the Omicron variant, remain in force over the Christmas period.