Elo Rankings Revealed: Euro 2024's top teams and underdogs ...

As the excitement builds for UEFA Euro 2024 in Germany, fans and analysts alike are eager to predict which team will emerge victorious. With numerous factors influencing the outcome of such a prestigious tournament, a comprehensive data analysis can provide valuable insights into potential champions. By leveraging advanced metrics, including the widely respected Elo rating system, we can assess team strengths, form, and performance trends to make informed predictions. In this analysis, we’ll dive deep into the statistics to evaluate the contenders and determine who stands the best chance of lifting the trophy at Euro 2024.

Methodology

To predict the UEFA Euro 2024 champion, we will utilize the Elo rating system, a method originally developed by Dr. Arpad Elo for rating chess players. This system has been adapted for international football, providing a reliable measure of team strength based on match results and various contextual factors.

The Elo rating system evaluates the relative skill levels of players or teams in competitor-versus-competitor games. For football, Elo ratings are calculated based on the results of international “A” matches, incorporating adjustments for the type of match, home team advantage, and goal difference.

The primary data for international football results is obtained from established databases such as rsssf.com (for data up to 2019), theroonba.com, and soccer-db.info (discontinued). These sources compile comprehensive match results, which are essential for accurate Elo rating calculations.

Elo ratings converge on a team’s true strength relative to its competitors after approximately 30 matches. Therefore, teams with fewer than 30 matches are considered to have provisional ratings, which may not fully reflect their competitive strength.

By using this methodology, we aim to provide a data-driven prediction of the UEFA Euro 2024 champion, offering a robust analysis grounded in a well-established rating system.

Group A

As the host nation, Germany not only enjoy the home advantage but also boast the highest Elo rating in Group A at 1920. Historically a football powerhouse, Germany’s blend of experienced veterans and emerging talents makes them a formidable opponent. Their tactical flexibility and depth in squad options give them a significant edge. With the support of the home crowd and a robust tactical setup, Germany are the clear favourites to top the group and advance to the knockout stages.

With an Elo rating of 1832, Hungary sit in a competitive position within Group A. The Hungarian team has shown resilience and tactical acumen in recent international fixtures, making them a dark horse in this group. Their ability to adapt to different play styles and exploit their opponents’ weaknesses will be crucial. Hungary’s matches against Scotland and Switzerland will be pivotal in determining their fate in the tournament. A strong performance could see them securing one of the top two spots or at least a chance to qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.

Switzerland, with an Elo rating of 1805, are another strong contender in Group A. Known for their organized defense and effective counter-attacking strategies, the Swiss team has consistently performed well in recent tournaments. Their ability to remain composed under pressure and execute their game plan efficiently makes them a formidable opponent. Switzerland’s balanced squad and tactical discipline could see them finishing in the top two and advancing to the knockout stages.

Scotland enter the tournament with an Elo rating of 1770. Known for their gritty and determined style of play, the Scots will look to leverage their physicality and team spirit. While they might not have the star power of Germany, their cohesive unit and tactical discipline could see them challenging for a top-two finish. Their matches will likely be tight contests, and they must capitalise on any opportunities that arise to secure points.

Group B

Spain enter the tournament as the highest-ranked team in Group B with an Elo rating of 2020. Known for their possession-based style of play, patient build-up and tactical sophistication, Spain are favorites to top the group. Their squad depth, technical proficiency, and experience on the international stage provide them with a significant advantage. With a combination of seasoned veterans and talented youngsters, Spain’s ability to control games and create scoring opportunities makes them a formidable opponent. They are expected to secure one of the top two spots and progress to the knockout stages.

Croatia, with an Elo rating of 1969, is another strong contender in Group B. The Croatian team has consistently performed well in recent international competitions, leveraging their tactical versatility and individual brilliance. Led by experienced players like Luka Modrić, Croatia’s blend of creativity and resilience will be critical to their success. Their ability to perform under pressure and execute strategic game plans makes them a likely candidate for the knockout stages. Croatia’s matches against Italy and Spain will be crucial in determining their final standing in the group.

Italy, sitting close to Croatia with an Elo rating of 1950, are always a force to be reckoned with in international tournaments. Known for their defensive solidity and tactical acumen, the Italian team will look to leverage these strengths to secure a top-two finish. Their disciplined approach, combined with the attacking flair of their forwards, provides a balanced threat to any opponent. Italy’s experience in navigating the pressures of major tournaments and their ability to adapt tactically will be vital. Their encounters with Spain and Croatia will be decisive in shaping their path in the tournament.

Albania, with an Elo rating of 1624, are the underdog in Group B. While they face a daunting challenge against the higher-ranked teams, Albania’s determination and team spirit can never be underestimated. They will need to play with exceptional discipline and seize any opportunities that come their way to compete effectively. For Albania, every match will be an uphill battle, but their tenacity and potential for causing upsets could see them fighting for a respectable finish and achieving a third-place spot and a chance to advance as one of the best third-placed teams would be a significant achievement for them.

Group C

England lead Group C with an Elo rating of 1981, marking them as the favourites. Known for their blend of youthful exuberance and experienced stalwarts, England bring a well-rounded squad to the tournament. Their attacking prowess, led by some of Europe’s top talents, combined with a solid defensive setup, makes them a formidable opponent. England’s tactical flexibility and depth in squad options provide them with various strategies to tackle different opponents. They are expected to secure a top-two finish and advance comfortably to the knockout stages.

Denmark, with an Elo rating of 1834, stands as a strong contender in Group C. Renowned for their disciplined approach and cohesive team play, Denmark have consistently performed well in recent international tournaments. Their strength lies in a well-organised defence, complemented by quick and efficient counterattacks. With key players capable of changing the course of the game, Denmark are well-equipped to challenge for the top spots in the group. Their matches against Serbia and Slovenia will be crucial in determining their progress to the knockout rounds.

Serbia, holding an Elo rating of 1801, are another significant competitor in Group C. Known for their physicality and technical skills, the Serbian team has the potential to upset higher-ranked teams. Their attacking unit, capable of creating and converting chances, will be a critical factor in their campaign. Their encounters with Denmark and Slovenia will be pivotal in their quest to secure a place in the knockout stages.

Slovenia, with an Elo rating of 1733, enter Group C as the underdogs. Despite facing tougher opponents, Slovenia’s determination and tactical discipline will be their main assets. They will need to play with exceptional organisation and seize any opportunities to surprise their rivals. While progressing to the knockout stages will be challenging, Slovenia’s potential to cause upsets cannot be overlooked. A strong performance could see them aiming for a third-place finish, keeping their hopes of advancing as one of the best third-placed teams alive.

Group D

France, with an impressive Elo rating of 2077, enters the tournament as one of the favourites to top Group D and potentially win the entire competition. The French squad is brimming with world-class talent across all positions, combining experience and youthful exuberance. Their robust defence, creative midfield, and lethal attack make them a formidable force. With players capable of changing the game single-handedly, France are expected to dominate their group matches and secure a top spot with relative ease.

The Netherlands, boasting an Elo rating of 1974, are another heavyweight in Group D. Known for their attacking flair and tactical versatility, the Dutch team will be aiming for a deep run in the tournament. Their fluid playing style, characterised by quick passing and dynamic movement, often overwhelms opponents. The Netherlands’ defence, anchored by seasoned defenders, provides a solid foundation for their attacking ventures. They are strong contenders for a top-two finish, and their clash with France will be one of the highlights of the group stage.

Austria, with an Elo rating of 1863, is a team that can never be underestimated. Their disciplined approach under Ralf Rangnick and solid team cohesion have seen them perform admirably in recent competitions. Austria will be vying for a spot in the knockout stages, and their matches against Poland and the Netherlands will be crucial in determining their fate.

Poland, with an Elo rating of 1746, faces a challenging task in Group D. However, they possess the potential to cause upsets, particularly through their talismanic striker, Robert Lewandowski, who can change the course of a match. Poland’s strengths lie in their physicality and aerial prowess, which they will look to exploit, especially from set-pieces. To progress to the knockout stages, Poland will need to perform consistently. Their matches against Austria and the Netherlands will be pivotal for their qualification hopes.

Group E

Belgium, with an impressive Elo rating of 1988, enters Group E as the clear favourite. Known for their “Golden Generation,” Belgium boasts a squad filled with world-class talent in every position. Their attacking prowess, led by experienced forwards like Romelu Lukaku and creative midfielders like Kevin De Bruyne, makes them a formidable force. Belgium’s defence, although occasionally questioned, has the solidity needed to compete at the highest level. Belgium are expected to dominate the group and secure a top spot, setting the stage for a deep run in the tournament.

Ukraine, with an Elo rating of 1853, are a strong contender for a top-two finish in Group E. Ukraine’s recent performances have shown a team capable of playing disciplined, organised football with a strong emphasis on teamwork. Their defence is robust, and their midfield, led by technically gifted players around Zinchenko and Mudryk, can control the tempo of matches. Ukraine’s attack, while not as flashy as Belgium’s, is effective and capable of capitalizing on opportunities. Their matches against Slovakia and Romania will be crucial in determining their advancement to the knockout stages.

Slovakia, with an Elo rating of 1671, faces a challenging task in Group E. However, they have the potential to surprise their opponents with their resilience and tactical discipline. Slovakia’s strength lies in their defense, which can frustrate even the most potent attacks. Their midfield is hardworking and capable of creating chances, while their forwards can be clinical when given opportunities. For Slovakia to progress, they will need to perform consistently and secure points against Romania and Ukraine. Their match against Belgium will be a true test of their capabilities.

Romania, with an Elo rating of 1647, are seen as the underdogs in Group E. Despite this, they possess the ability to upset the odds and challenge for a spot in the knockout stages. To advance, Romania must perform well in their matches against Slovakia and Ukraine. Consistency and determination will be critical to their success.

Group F

Portugal, with an Elo rating of 2003, enter the tournament as one of the top contenders not just in Group F but in the entire competition. The Portuguese squad is brimming with talent, combining experienced stars and promising young players. Their attacking lineup, featuring the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, João Félix, and Bruno Fernandes, is one of the most formidable in Europe. Portugal’s defence, anchored by seasoned players like Rúben Dias, is equally robust. Given their depth and quality, Portugal is expected to dominate Group F and secure a top spot with relative ease.

The Czech Republic, with an Elo rating of 1777, are another strong contender in Group F. Known for their tactical discipline and cohesive team play, the Czech team has consistently performed well in international competitions. Their midfield and attack, led by West Ham United’s Tomáš Souček and Bayer Leverkusen‘s Patrik Schick, can dictate the pace of the game and create scoring opportunities. The Czech defence is well-organised and capable of withstanding pressure from top teams. Their matches against Türkiye and Georgia will be critical in securing a place in the knockout stages. With their balanced squad, the Czech Republic is likely to finish in the top two.

Türkiye, with an Elo rating of 1749, have a rich footballing history and a passionate fan base. The Turkish squad is known for its resilience and ability to perform under pressure. They boast a mix of experienced veterans and talented youngsters who can change the course of a match. Türkiye’s defence, led by Merih Demiral, is strong and capable of frustrating even the most potent attacks. Their midfield and attack, featuring players like Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yildiz, can be dynamic and unpredictable. To advance, Türkiye must secure points against Georgia and perform well against Portugal and the Czech Republic.

Georgia, with an Elo rating of 1666, are the underdogs in Group F. However, they are a team on the rise, eager to prove themselves on the European stage. Georgia’s squad is characterised by their hardworking and determined players who never shy away from a challenge—Georgia’s best chance of advancing lies in their matches against Türkiye and the Czech Republic. With a strong team effort and a few standout performances, Georgia could surprise their opponents and make a bid for one of the top three spots.

Conclusion

France, with the highest Elo rating of 2077, emerges as the frontrunner, closely followed by Spain (2020) and Portugal (2003). These teams, brimming with world-class talent and tournament experience, are expected to contend fiercely for the championship.

Conversely, the tournament’s biggest outsiders include Albania (1624) in Group B and Romania (1647) in Group E. Despite their lower Elo ratings, these teams will be looking to upset the established order and make surprising runs deep into the competition. As always in football, the unpredictability of the sport means that while favourites are identified, the potential for surprise results adds to the excitement and drama of the tournament.

My name is Luis Kircher,20-year old analyst from Germany. I am currently studying football management as I aspire to work in elite football.