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UK house prices hit record high but slowdown looms; eurozone bond yields rise – as it happened

UK house prices hit record high but slowdown looms eurozone bond yields rise  as it happened
Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news
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Key events Show
  • 6.44pm GMT 18:44 Closing summary
  • 5.30pm GMT 17:30 European stock markets close higher
  • 4.43pm GMT 16:43 Lagarde: Eurozone inflation may subside before becoming entrenched
  • 4.14pm GMT 16:14 Asda puts value ranges in all stores after Jack Monroe pressure
  • 3.49pm GMT 15:49 Eurozone bond yields lifted by interest rate rise expectations
  • 1.27pm GMT 13:27 UK beer prices pushed up by ‘vicious cycle’ of costs, says Cobra founder
  • 12.23pm GMT 12:23 Eurozone bond yields jump amid ECB tightening fears
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From 7.35am GMT

07:35

Halifax: House price at record levels, but slowdown looms

UK house prices have hit record highs last month, but the cost of living squeeze means growth is likely to “slow considerably” this year, mortgage lender Halifax says.

Halifax has just reported that house prices rose by 0.3% last month, their slowest monthly rise since last June.

On an annual basis, the rate of growth remained steady at 9.7% last month.

But with household budgets squeezed by rising inflation, and higher interest rates pushing up mortgage costs, the market is expected to cool.

In January, the average UK house price on Halifax’s index rose to a new record high of £276,759. That’s around £24,500 up on this time last year, and £37,500 higher than two years ago, before the pandemic.

Halifax house price index

Russell Galley, managing director at Halifax, says house price growth slowed somewhat at the start of the year.

Affordability is already historically stretched, making it even harder to get onto the property ladder, Galley points out:

“Following the peak activity of 2021, transaction volumes are returning to more normal levels. Affordability remains at historically low levels as house price rises continue to outstrip earnings growth. Despite record levels of first-time buyers stepping onto the ladder last year, younger generations still face significant barriers to home ownership as deposit requirements remain challenging.

“This situation is expected to become more acute in the short-term as household budgets face even greater pressure from an increase in the cost of living, and rises in interest rates begin to feed through to mortgage rates. While the limited supply of new housing stock to the market will continue to provide some support to house prices, it remains likely that the rate of house price growth will slow considerably over the next year.”

6.44pm GMT 18:44

Closing summary

Time to wrap up. Here’s the main stories

US house price growth is set to slow substantially, experts say, as the cost of living squeeze hits household budgets.

Mortgage lender Halifax reported that average prices hit a new record of £276,759 in January, but monthly growth slowed to 0.3%. Higher inflation, and rising borrowing costs, are likely to cool the market this year.

European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde has tried to calm concerns that inflation could force the ECB to tighten monetary policy sharply. She told MEPs that the chances have increased that inflation will stabilize at its 2% target, despite hitting its higher level since the euro came in.

Lagarde’s comments came after eurozone bond yields rose, with the gap between Italy and Germany’s borrowing costs hitting its highest since summer 2020.

Supermarket chain Asda has committed to making its cheapest food ranges more widely available, after the anti-poverty campaigner Jack Monroe raised concerns that low-income shoppers were facing price increases because they could no longer get hold of them.

Unions have urged the government to do more to help low-paid workers weather the cost of living crisis, after research found the number claiming universal credit has more than doubled since the start of the pandemic to at least 2.3 million.

The founder of Cobra Beer has warned that drinkers are going to have to pay more for their pints because the industry faces a “vicious cycle” of surging costs.

Two FTSE 350 firms have appointed new CEOs today, and they’re both women.

Pets At Home has appointed Sky UK executive Lyssa McGowan as its first female chief executive, while housebuilder Taylor Wimpey has promoted group operations director Jennie Daly to be its CEO, despite pressure from activist investor Elliott for an external hire.

The mutual insurer LV= has launched a boardroom clear-out following the high-profile failure of its management to sell the company to a US private equity firm last year.

European stock markets have closed higher, with travel stocks boosted by signs that Covid-19 case rates are falling in some countries.

Investor morale in the eurozone has risen....but German industrial production dipped in December as construction output dropped.

And fans of plant milk can now buy potato milk at Waitrose this week:

Goodnight. GW

6.43pm GMT 18:43

Some highlights from the Treasury Committee’s hearing on inflation, and the Bank of England today, from my colleague Richard Partington...:

Richard Partington (@RJPartington)

Roger Bootle tells the Treasury committee what, I suspect, the Conservative members probably didn't want to hear - On high UK debt-GDP and rising interest rates pushing up debt servicing costs: "It’s not quite the disaster that people imagine"

February 7, 2022
Richard Partington (@RJPartington)

Jim O'Neill says he'd welcome higher debt-GDP as a consequence of "proper" investment in education, health and devolution.

"I would positively welcome it... What's different between 85% and 100% if it's being done for a constructive purpose?".

February 7, 2022

..and Arthi Nachiappan of The Times:

Arthi Nachiappan (@ArthiNachiappan)

“It was important that the monetary policy committee signalled its willingness to act last year… some of the language could have been clearer” @jagjit_chadha @NIESRorg tells the Treasury Committee in the House of Commons hearing this afternoon

February 7, 2022
Arthi Nachiappan (@ArthiNachiappan)

@RogerBootle says there is a mismatch between the level of monetary policy tightening and the scale of the inflation danger but adds that it’s not just the Bank - the vast majority of economists were also not able to predict that inflation would rise as fast as it did

February 7, 2022
Arthi Nachiappan (@ArthiNachiappan)

Ann Pettifor says the Bank of England can’t be held responsible for the “disfunctional” global energy market - the problem is not with the Bank but with the broader economic model

February 7, 2022
Arthi Nachiappan (@ArthiNachiappan)

Lord O’Neill says the “persistent quantitative easing approach” had long gone beyond its purpose before Covid & the Bank has created a problem for themselves linked to how long QE has gone on for

February 7, 2022

6.40pm GMT 18:40

Global supply chain problems have forced investment group abrdn to delay an investor vote on its £1.5 billion takeover of Interactive Investor.... because it couldn’t get hold of enough paper.

Abrdn faced problems securing enough paper to post a circular to its more than a million shareholders before their vote on its planned purchase of ii, the do-it-yourself investment platform.

The paperwork should be dispatched this week, which is about two weeks later than planned.

Richard Partington (@RJPartington)

First a vowel shortage, now a paper shortage. Delays to Abrdn shareholder vote on £1.5bn deal https://t.co/GvwPa3Lssu

February 7, 2022

6.35pm GMT 18:35

Simon Goodley

Simon Goodley

The former owner of Norton Motorcycles faces up to two years in prison after pleading guilty to illegally investing millions of pounds of people’s retirement savings into his own businesses.

Stuart Garner, who acquired the classic marque in 2008 and was feted by a series of UK government ministers including the MP Stephen Barclay, the prime minister’s new chief of staff since Saturday, admitted three offences at Derby magistrates court on Monday.

Garner will be sentenced at the end of the month, when he faces a maximum of two years in prison or an unlimited fine.

The admission comes after pension holders had been complaining for years that the businessman had repeatedly ignored their requests to return their retirement savings. It also follows a 2020 Guardian and ITV News investigation that showed how more than 200 “ordinary working people” had had their entire pension pots invested into Norton shares.

Here’s the full story:

Joel Hills (@ITVJoel)

The former owner of Norton Motorcycles, Stuart Garner, has admitted illegally using money from 3 pension schemes to invest in the business. Maximum penalty is 2 years in prison.

Norton was feted by a series of government ministers. Here is Garner in 2018 with Stephen Barclay. pic.twitter.com/vscNsKHvvJ

February 7, 2022

6.20pm GMT 18:20

Travel stocks are rallying in the US today, as in Europe, on signs that Covid-19 infections could be slowing in some countries.

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, Royal Caribbean Cruises and Carnival Corp are all up around 8% in New York, where American Airlines is up 4% and aircraft manufacturer Boeing is 2.8% higher.

The rally comes as Covid-19 case rates slow in the US and parts of Europe, after a grim winter of record infections.

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New daily cases per million people, average of previous seven days
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Source: Johns Hopkins University. Note: JHU collates this data from multiple sources whose methodologies may differ from each other. In addition, many of the sources have changed their reporting practices since the beginning of the pandemic or made revisions to their data.
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New cases per day in the US have plunged by almost half since mid-January. But the death toll from Covid-19 is stark - hitting 900,000 last Friday, less than two months after eclipsing 800,000.

6.14pm GMT 18:14

Crypto currencies are pushing higher tonight, with bitcoin now up 9% at a four-week high of $44,362, and Ether touching three-week high.

Bitcoin had sunk to a six-month low in late January, in the wider selloff in speculative assets, but has now seeing a pick-up.

Craig Erlam of OANDA says:

Bitcoin hasn’t only weathered the recent storm, it’s managed to rally through a key resistance level and generate some decent upside momentum as well.

It’s been a mixed week for risk assets but bitcoin is finding some form and the break of $40,000 could be key to it continuing to build on that. We’ve seen what bitcoin can do once it gets moving and while it’s still early days, there’s certainly reason to think the worst may be behind it. The next big test is $45,000.

Breaking Market News (@breakingmkts)

BITCOIN HITS FOUR-WEEK HIGH, LAST UP 4.33% TO $44,258.38;

February 7, 2022

5.50pm GMT 17:50

Eurozone bond yields have slipped back somewhat from their earlier highs, after Christine Lagarde pushed back against worries that the ECB could tighten policy aggressively to tame inflation.

Mace News (@MaceNewsMacro)

MORE ECB'S LAGARDE: RISING INFLATION COULD LEAD ECB TO POLICY NORMALISATION, NOT A 'MEASURABLE TIGHTENING'#ecb #eurozoneeconomy #christinelagarde #monetarypolicy

February 7, 2022

ING’s Carsten Brzeski writes that Lagarde has tried to cork the ‘hawkish genie’ that triggered today’s selloff in bonds.

At today’s hearing at the European Parliament, Lagarde mainly repeated the main messages of Thursday’s ECB meeting but subtly pushed back on overly aggressive rate hike expectations. She stressed that any policy adjustment “will be very gradual” and that there were no signals that “inflation will be persistently and significantly above our target over the medium term, which would require measurable tightening.”

Also, she said that the ECB was determined to use all tools necessary to ensure an equal transmission of its policy to all member states. While these comments leave some open questions, like how to combine the end of asset purchases with still narrow bond yield spreads, it is clear that Lagarde’s mission today was to put the hawkish genie back into the bottle. Normalisation does not mean tightening.

ING Economics (@ING_Economics)

ECB President Christine Lagarde has tried to put the hawkish genie back into the bottle, writes @carstenbrzeski. Here's a look at what the Bank may do next.https://t.co/lysDv2mSVg

February 7, 2022

5.30pm GMT 17:30

European stock markets close higher

Europe’s stock markets have closed mostly higher tonight, although shares in Italy and Spain were dragged back by concerns over rising government bond yields.

In the City, the FTSE 100 index gained 57 points to close at 7573, up 0.75% today.

Financial stocks, miners, betting firms and travel companies gained ground, with Flutter up 5%, and airline group IAG gaining 3.8%, and Barclays, Lloyds and HSBC gaining over 2% each.

Property companies, supermarket chains and utilities dipped, though.

Germany’s DAX gained 0.7%, with France’s CAC 0.8% higher.

David Madden, analyst at Equiti Capital, says:

Traders are cautiously optimistic this afternoon and in turn we are seeing a rally in stocks. European benchmarks are outperforming their US counterparts even though tensions between Russia and Ukraine haven’t been resolved. The international community is taking the issue very seriously, the UK announced it is sending troops to Poland.

Despite the political standoff, stock markets in continental Europe are showing impressive gains as the DAX and the CAC are both up almost 1%. It is remarkable the German index is holding up so well when you consider it is heavily dependent on energy supplies from Russia, so a war in that part of the world could spark an energy crisis. The FTSE 100 is firmly in positive territory as banking, oil and mining stocks are assisting the market.

However, Italy’s FTSE MIB lost 1%, and Spain’s IBEX slipped by 0.36%, as those rising peripheral eurozone bond yields caught traders’ attention.

AudioMercados (@AUDIOmercados)

No te pierdas nuestro #podcast con el cierre de mercados

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