Bloody Elbow predictions for UFC 301 main card

The UFC returns to Rio de Janeiro this Saturday evening for UFC 301, as Alexandre Pantoja looks to successfully defend his flyweight title against the rising Steve Erceg.

With this being the PPV following on from UFC 300, it has caused quite a stir. With UFC 300 being so incredibly stacked, this event was always going to look like its skinny little brother.

The fact that number 10 ranked, Steve Erceg, got the call to challenge for the title also didn’t sit well with the majority of fans, as he’s not a big household name. Despite that, the Auzzie is more than ready for the big moment, and fans have begun warming to the 28-year-old challenger.

With the prelims looking rather shoddy, let’s get straight into my main card picks.

Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho – Middleweight

‘Bearjew’ Paul Craig continues his run at 185lbs with a fight against the streaking Caio Borralho.

Craig – who is coming off a main event loss to Brendan Allen last November – is making his third appearance in a row at middleweight, after finally moving down from 205lbs last year.

The Brazilian, Borralho, is riding a seven-fight win streak and has looked increasingly impressive with each outing. The 31-year-old is looking to leapfrog Craig in the middleweight rankings, as he continues his pursuit into the top 10.

The Scotsman – who is notoriously dangerous on the mat – has a clear advantage in the grappling. Borralho, though, has really dominant top control when he gets the fight to the ground, making for quite an intriguing matchup.

With both fighters understanding the ground threat of one another, I expect this fight to play out on the feet, in what will likely include some bizarre striking exchanges. With that being said, I think the Fighting Nerds product, Caio Borralho has the advantage in striking.

The 31-year-old possesses a more well-rounded skillset and will likely be able to impose himself on Craig more than the other way around. Despite that, he doesn’t tend to finish his fights on the feet, so I expect this to go all three rounds.

Prediction: Caio Borralho decision

Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria – Middleweight

‘Demolidor’ Michel Pereira is looking to continue his impressive start to his middleweight tenure. The Brazilian has scored back-to-back first-round finishes at 185lbs and is close to putting a number next to his name.

Ihor Potieria is a hated man in Brazil after he knocked out Brazilian legend, Shogun Rua, the last time the promotion landed in Rio.

Since then, the ‘Duelist’ has struggled with consistency, losing two of his following three fights. He bounced back with a win over Robert Bryczek last time out but missed weight in the process.

I believe Pereira’s momentum will give him confidence in this fight, as well as fighting in his home country. The 30-year-old has a definitive striking advantage in this fight, and Potieria will likely leave openings that will be exploited by the Brazilian.

Prediction: Michel Pereira knockout

Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino – Light Heavyweight

The undefeated Vitor Petrino faces his sternest test so far as he takes on former light heavyweight title challenger, Anthony Smith.

Smith is looking to buck a recent trend in his career, with the 35-year-old suffering three losses in his last four fights. Unfortunately for ‘Lionheart’ his last few performances make it difficult to see how he is going to return to the win column against Petrino.

Of course, Smith holds a massive experience advantage over the Brazilian, but I don’t think that’ll be enough for him to take the win in this fight, and Vitor Petrino will pick up the biggest win of his career thus far.

Prediction: Vitor Petrino decision

Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo – Bantamweight

‘The King of Rio’ returns for the final fight on his current UFC contract, in what is one of the biggest storylines of this weekend’s PPV.

Jose Aldo hasn’t competed in the Octagon since 2022, when he was beaten comprehensively by Merab Dvalishvili. Although he hasn’t been competing in MMA, the 37-year-old has fought three times in boxing.

Jonathan Martinez on the other hand is on an impressive six-fight win streak and is looking to add a big name to his impressive resume.

This fight has the potential to be great. Both fighters are notorious for their brutal leg kicks. But the main question is whether Aldo still has enough in the tank to beat a young, hungry contender, or if he’s too long in the tooth at this point in his storied career.

Unfortunately, I am leaning with the latter, that Aldo doesn’t have enough left in the tank, and the metaphorical torch will be passed to Martinez who will put himself into the title picture at 135lbs.

Prediction: Jonathan Martinez decision

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg – Flyweight title fight

Although this main event may not have the name value of previous PPV main events this year, it is one of the most fascinating matchups so far in 2024.

Alexandre Pantoja is looking to further cement himself as one of the greatest flyweight fighters ever by adding Steve Erceg’s name to his list. It is finally a new matchup for ‘The Cannibal’ and there’s no better situation for him, than to be defending his title in his home city.

Flying from the opposite side of the world is Steve Erceg. An unassuming yet highly dangerous individual, who has all of the tools to dethrone Pantoja.

Because Erceg only made his UFC debut last year, he is being counted out by the large majority of UFC fans. Despite that, he’s one of the most skilled 125lb fighters in the world. The Australian has a very strong wrestling base and has also showcased incredible takedown defense in his previous three fights.

The 28-year-old is also the far more technical striker in this matchup, and I believe his patience and fight IQ will be enough for him to pull off a huge upset in Brazil.

I see Alexandre Pantoja coming fast out of the gates, and he will try and do something special in front of his home fans. The eagerness to impress will leave him vulnerable, and the calm and accurate Erceg will make him pay.

Prediction: Steve Erceg knockout

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