UFC 301 odds: Opening and closing betting line movements | Pantoja vs. Erceg

UFC 301goes down later this evening (Sat., May 4, 2024) from inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The event is a “Brazil vs. The World”-type affair from the pay-per-view (PPV) main event all the way down to the curtain jerker. It’s “Brazil vs. Australia” in the main event (which would be a kit clash in most other sports), with Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, staking his title against relatively unknown, Steve Erceg.

The co-main event has Brazilian mixed martial arts (MMA) royalty on show with Jose Aldo returning from a faux-retirement to take on Jonathan Martinez in the Bantamweight division. Rounding out UFC 301’s PPV main card is former title challenger, Anthony Smith, taking on the undefeated Vitor Petrino, action fighter Michel Pereira meeting Ihor Potieria and action grappler Paul Craig meeting inaction expert, Caio Borralho.

UFC 301’s “Prelims” later tonight have some interesting additions, too; with Drakkar Klose meeting Joaquim Silva and Ismael Bonfim facing off with Vinc Pichel.

I’ve been watching the odds for these bouts all week looking for interesting dogs, props and parlays. In this post, I’m going to focus on line movement between now and earlier this week (Monday) to see where the money is coming in. This way you can decide if you want to follow said money or fade it.

UFC 301 PPV Main Card Line Movement

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Alexandre Pantoja (-185) vs. Steve Erceg (+154)

The Pantoja vs. Erceg line has remained the same since Monday. This could indicate that there is plenty of action on both Pantoja and Erceg, with the champion a slight favorite and the challenger a slight underdog. The odds here are reflective of Erceg being a fresh, young and interesting challenger who is relatively untested in UFC’s 125-pound division, but also someone who probably hasn’t shown us what he is capable of yet. Plenty of folks look willing to ride with him on Saturday to see if they can make a small profit off the belief that he’s trending upward. The line on Pantoja — and how it has remained still — tells us folks are still willing to buy Pantoja as a solid Flyweight veteran who is battle-tested and proven he can win tough fights over long rounds. The only doubt on him is whether he’s had too many tough fights on top of all the years he’s been in the game.

I can make an argument for either man in this one, but if I had to pick, I’d side with Pantoja just because we’ve seen more of him.

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Jonathan Martinez (-142) vs. Jose Aldo (+120)

There has been a little bit of movement on the lines for UFC 301’s co-main event. Aldo has seen his underdog status decrease slightly from +136 on Monday to +120 now. I think this shows the public still have fond memories of Aldo and they want to back him to win on his return to UFC. Because of this, Martinez’s line has also shifted a little. He was a -162 favorite at the start of the week, but now you can get him at -142 — which should be appealing to those who think Aldo is too close to 40 and too rusty to make a winning comeback to the Octagon.

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Anthony Smith (+425) vs. Vitor Petrino (-575)

The public think Smith is in a lot of trouble on Saturday night. The oddsmakers had him as a +390 dog on Monday, but with money coming in against him, his odds have now grown to +425. Smith — a former title challenger — has been stopped in two of his last five fights. Petrino is undefeated (11-0) and, before beating Tyson Pedro, knocked out Modestas Bukauskas cold with a clean check hook (see it here). We’ll get into props later, but Petrino is currently just +100 to win this fight via (technical) knockout.

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Michel Pereira (-650) vs. Ihor Potieria (+470)

Pereira’s odds have been slashed from -535 to -650 as public money has rushed in on what feels like the biggest mismatch of the card. Pereira has looked awesome as of late. Potieria, on the other hand, has looked awful and seems destined to be on the wrong side of a highlight-reel knockout. Pereira is negative odds to win via TKO/KO (-150). With a single bet on Pereira netting back very little in return, he is likely featuring on countless parlays along with the rest of UFC 301’s heavy favorites.

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Paul Craig (+470) vs. Caio Borralho (-650)

Speaking of heavy favorites ... Borralho’s odds have shifted from -550 to -650 over the week, probably because he’s been put into so many parlays along with Pereira. The confidence in Borralho is almost certainly due to belief that his smothering, no-fun grappling game will be too powerful for the very fun high-risk, high-reward grappling game of Craig.

UFC 301 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

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Jack Shore (+150) vs. Joanderson Brito (-180)

There’s been some interesting movement for the “Prelims,” including with this fight. This one started out as +124 for Shore versus -148 for Brito. However, it seems the public are buying into Brito. That’s good news if you think this is a close match-up and Shore can cause the upset on enemy territory.

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+310) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-395)

Kowalkiewicz’s line of +330 looked a little silly to me on Monday and it seems at least a few people agree. Bets on the former UFC Strawweight title challenger have shortened her odds to +310. I still think that’s high given she is on a four-fight win streak and has done more in the cage, both lately and in the past, than Lucindo has. Lucindo was a -425 favorite to start the week. If you think this is a squash match, watch that line closely since it may come in even more as more folks get tempted to bet on Kowalkiewicz.

Elves Brener (+210) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-258)

There’s not much change in this line. Brener was +230 on Monday, while Orolbai was -285.

Jean Silva (-162) vs. William Gomis (+136)

Fight is canceled after William Gomis looked terrible on the scales (see that here).

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UFC 301 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Line Movement

Joaquim Silva (+154) vs. Drakkar Klose (-185)

Klose’s odds to beat Silva have really shortened. On Monday he was -162. A few days prior to that he was -142. Silva’s odds have grown slightly from +140 since Monday. Klose looked good in beating Joe Solecki with a slam in the first round in back in Dec. 2023 (watch highlights). That extended his win streak to three fights. That streak started after he was sidelined for two years thanks to an ACL injury.

BestFightOdds.com

Mauricio Ruffy (-218) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+180)

Mullarkey’s odds have been the most volatile of anyone on this card. He has continued to grow as an underdog, with seemingly a lot of money heading toward Ruffy (who is making his UFC proper debut, as a 30-year-old, off the back of a Contender Series win). You could have gotten Ruffy at -175 earlier this week. Mullarkey started the week as a +145 dog. Remarkably, Mullarkey was a favorite when this fight was announced. I think Mullarkey has value as an underdog here, since I’m not sold on Ruffy — the Brazilian looks quite chaotic and hittable to me.

BestFightOdds.com

Dione Barbosa (-238) vs. Ernesta Kareckaite (+195)

A lot of money looks to have come in on Barbosa over the week, with her odds shrinking from -205 to -238. That has seen Kareckaite go from a +170 dog to +195 (and I think that will go even higher). Barbosa feels like the much better MMA fighter in this match-up and she is very dangerous on the ground. Kareckaite feels like a kickboxer who will be overwhelmed once Barbosa takes her down.

Ismael Bonfim (-535) vs. Vinc Pichel (+400)

There’s been no change in the odds for Bonfim vs. Pichel this week. Seems there are lots of folks in both camps, betting on Bonfim as a large favorite (perhaps packaged in a parlay with all the other ones) and betting on Pichel as an intriguing underdog. I personally wouldn’t touch Pichel, who is over 40 now and has not been active enough in UFC to justify his place on a PPV.

Alessandro Costa (-130) vs. Kevin Borjas (+110)

There’s been very little change on these betting lines. Costa was -125 to start the week. Borjas was +105.

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UFC 301 Prop Bets And Parlays

I’ve looked over the props and possible parlays for this card and below are some interesting bets. Remember, though, never bet anything you can’t afford to lose.

Five-pick parlay: Ismael Bonfim, Dione Barbosa, Caio Borralho, Michel Pereira and Victor Petrino (+163)

If you package together all the big favorites on this card you still only get +163 odds. It feels like a lot needs to break your way to pick five fights correctly, but if you want to root for these favorites and try and profit of them, this might be safer than going for prop bets. I think all of these fighters will win, the only question marks for me are if Smith has too much veteran craft for Petrino or if Bonfim tries to cruise against Pichel and gets surprised.

Three-pick parlay: Dione Barbosa to win by submission, Elves Brener vs. Myktykbek Orolbai under 2.5 rounds, Michel Pereira to win (+740)

This is me packaging together the three things I have liked the most this week. I think Barbosa is being undervalued as a favorite and she will have ample opportunities to submit Kareckaite. I believe both Brener and Orolbai are capable of finishing each other and that it will happen on the early side of the fight, perhaps in their first couple of ground exchanges. And it just seems obvious that Pereira will win on Saturday any darn way he wants.

Paul Craig vs. Caio Borralho to go the distance (+150)

Borralho is not going to go for the finish here. Craig can only win this on the ground, so I think Borralho will be content to just prevent giving him any opportunities to that and will lay on him for 15 minutes. He’ll tap away with punches to prevent a stand up, but won’t risk posturing up and leaving himself open for a triangle. After the final bell rings, Borralho will don his specs and give us a big smile while the judges’ 30-27 scores are read, knowing he avoided a pitfall and put in an easy night’s work to move up a wrung on the ladder at Middleweight.

Michel Pereira to beat Ihor Potieria via submission (+350)

There’s a good chance Pereira comes out firing and finishes Potieria with a Tekken-style combination to win this bout in less than one minute (you can get +500 on this bout ending within a minute, by the way). However, let’s not think of Pereira as just a striking threat. The man has seven wins by submission, including his victory over Michal Oleksiejczuk last time out (which happened at 1:01 in the first round). Pereira won his third UFC fight by submission, too (over Zelim Imadaev in 2020). If Pereira wants to grapple, he’ll certainly be able to against Potieria. Pereira’s takedown accuracy is mediocre at 55 percent, but Potieria’s takedown defense is woeful at 57 percent.

UFC 301 Poll Time

Which of these props and parlays do you like the look of the most?

Any parlays or props pique your interest? Hit us up in the comments below.

LIVE! Watch UFC 301 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

RAUCUS RETURN TO RIO!Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Sat., May 4, 2024, featuring Flyweight champion, Alexandre Pantoja, defending his belt against undefeated challenger, Steve Erceg, in the pay-per-view (PPV) main event of the evening. UFC 301’s co-main event features “The King of Rio,” Jose Aldo, returning to the Bantamweight division for the first time in almost two years to take on Jonathan Martinez. UFC 301’s PPV main card (see it here) will also feature Anthony Smith vs. Vitor Petrino, Michel Pereira vs. Ihor Potieria and so much more. It’s must-watch action! UFC 301 start time scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (Prelims) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!