China's aviation fuel demand expected to rise 13% in 2024 - CNPC research

BEIJING :China's aviation fuel consumption is likely to expand 13.1 per cent this year on a surge in passenger travel, but its crude oil imports may stay flat, according to forecasts by a research arm of state energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC).

Aviation fuel consumption may hit 39.3 million metric tons this year, and crude oil imports are expected to rise 0.1 per cent to 565 million metric tons, or about 11.3 million barrels per day (bpd), CNPC's Economic & Technology Research Institute (ETRI) said in its annual outlook on Wednesday.

Kerosene demand has been widely expected to grow further this year, as China's international air travel demand gradually recovers in the post-COVID travel market. International traffic remained depressed, at 53 per cent of pre-COVID levels at the end of 2023, LSEG data showed.

"Kerosene consumption is in a period of post-epidemic recovery and rapid growth," said Wang Lining, head of the oil markets research unit at ETRI.

"With rising per capita incomes and the improving air transportation facilities, China's kerosene demand still has room to increase," Wang added.

China's kerosene demand is expected to reach 54 million tons in 2030 and to peak in 2040, according to ETRI figures.

Wider economic pressures have weighed on demand for diesel, a key fuel for trucks in the logistics and construction sectors, as CNPC expected diesel use to fall 2.8 per cent this year to 196 million metric tons.

Gasoline consumption, however, may grow 1.3 per cent to 165.1 million metric tons, CNPC said.

Analysts have forecast China's gasoline demand will likely peak between 2024 and 2025, as a rollout of electric vehicles (EVs) continues at breakneck speed. EV sales are expected to account for 40 per cent of about 23 million total auto sales this year.

National crude oil throughput is seen growing 1.8 per cent to a record 752 million tons, or 15.04 million bpd, with average refinery utilisation rate pegged at 78.3 per cent, off slightly from last year's 78.9 per cent, CNPC added.

Natural gas demand was forecast to grow 6.1 per cent to reach 415.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2024, with imports expected to account for 43.1 per cent of this.

LNG imports are expected to grow 8.1 per cent to total 77.11 million tons this year, slightly below 2021's record of 78.93 million tons despite a significant increase in LNG port receiving capacity over the last year.

(Ton = 7.3 barrels for crude oil conversion)