A Supreme Court leak portends tighter abortion laws in America

America appears ever closer to striking down Roe v Wade, the landmark Supreme Court judgment from 1973 that made abortion a constitutional right. As such a decision would allow each state to legislate on the matter, a wave of abortion restrictions would follow. Though a ruling from the Supreme Court is not expected until the summer, a leaked draft opinion from February, published on May 2nd by Politico, shows that a majority of the justices want to strike it down. (On May 3rd the Supreme Court confirmed the authenticity of the memo, but said it did “not represent a decision by the court”). Written by Samuel Alito, one of the most conservative justices on the court, it reads in part: “The inescapable conclusion is that a right to abortion is not deeply rooted in the Nation’s history and traditions.” The leak, unprecedented in court history, signals a profound shift in reproductive rights in America. Protesters gathered at the steps of the Supreme Court in Washington as the news spread.

Yet many other countries are liberalising their abortion laws. In late February crowds in Colombia celebrated their Supreme Court’s decision to decriminalise abortion. Similar rulings were made by the highest courts in Mexico in September 2021 and in Argentina in December 2020. Ireland and the Democratic Republic of Congo have also loosened their restrictions. Over the past quarter of a century some 50 countries have expanded the legal right to abortions. Today, 590m women of reproductive age across the globe have the right to request one. (Some 90m still have no access to abortions under any circumstances.)

America bucks this trend. If the Supreme Court does strike Roe, abortion rights in an estimated 26 states will see a staggering regression. According to the Guttmacher Institute, a pro-choice think-tank, 13 of them, concentrated mostly in the South and Midwest, have “trigger” laws that would automatically ban almost all abortions should Roe be overturned. Only 16 states and the District of Columbia have laws to protect abortion in a post-Roe world. If Roe is struck down, Planned Parenthood, the largest provider of abortions and reproductive services in America, estimates that some 36m women of reproductive age will face losing the right to choose to have an abortion in their respective states.

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